Scaling With Big Blocks

Blocks need to be 373 MB to serve

billion people, of which
percent can transact (ie excluding infants, dependants etc), and
percent of those use bitcoin instead of existing payment options, at an average of
daily transactions.

Does this block size lead to a viable network?

Calculations

7.5 billion people ×
50 percent ×
1 percent ×
5 transactions per person per day ×
300 bytes per transaction ÷
1024 bytes per kilobyte ÷
1024 kilobytes per megabyte ÷
24 hours per day ÷
60 minutes per hour ×
10 minutes per block

=7.5*1000000000*50/100*1/100*5*300/1024/1024/24/60*10 MB per block

Caveats

The size of blocks will need to be much larger than shown because this calculator makes the following assumptions that would fail in the real world: